Some Methodological Issues
overhead
I. Problem of understanding
Statistics
·
Reading
of Statistical Tables
II.
Problems in the Interpretation of Statistical Tables
III. Interpretation of original NCVS
statistics Problems in the
Interpretation of reported Events.
IV.
Problems with Theories
·
Theories
and the relations between Variables
V.
Logical Problems:
·
Variables
and their relationships
VI.
Problem
in the interpretation of Incidence and Prevalence
I. Problem of understanding Statistics: Reading of Statistical Tables
Bivariate Statistics
Table:
Description
Columns
|
|
DV1 |
DV2 |
row stats |
|
IV1 |
|
Cell |
|
|
IV2 |
|
|
|
|
Column stats |
|
|
|
Table:
Juvenile Arrests: Total 1991, Total
and by Sex1994, 1996. Source: UCR 1995 table 37.
|
|
Arrests 1994 |
Arrests 1995 |
% change |
|
Male |
1,492,967 |
1,492,388 |
+1 |
|
Female |
494,242 |
511,269 |
+3.4 |
|
Total |
1,987,209 |
2,003,657 |
+0.8 |
Let's
look at the UCR Arrest Trends by State 1996
|
Texas |
Juvenile Arrests Percent Change |
Adult Arrests Percent Change |
|
Murder |
- 32 |
-33 |
|
Forcible rape |
35 |
-8 |
|
Robbery |
-9 |
-18 |
|
Larceny-theft |
25 |
-6 |
|
Car theft |
-21 |
-23 |
|
Arson |
56 |
-30 |
II. Problems in the Interpretation of Statistical Tables
Overhead:
Victimization
by Age NCVS
Data source: National Criminal Victimization Survey, 1998
NCJ 181585, Table 19
|
|
|
12-19 |
|
20-34 |
|
35-49 |
|
50-64 |
|
65 and over |
Type of crime
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Property crimes |
|
593.5 |
|
272.9 |
|
267.7 |
|
185.9 |
|
88.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Household burglary |
|
132.7 |
|
46.2 |
|
45.9 |
|
30.9 |
|
21.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Motor vehicle theft |
|
34.1 |
|
17.0 |
|
10.5 |
|
9.2 |
|
4.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Theft |
|
426.7 |
|
209.7 |
|
211.3 |
|
145.8 |
|
61.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total number households |
|
872,920 |
|
25,301,940 |
|
35,200,630 |
|
22,289,700 |
|
21,657,730 |
If we compare the young victims (12-19) to the old victims (65-)
Do we have to account for the different numerical representation?
Overhead: Victimization
rates by race and age of victims and type of crime.
Rate per 1,000 people in each age group. Data
source: National Criminal Victimization Survey, 1998 NCJ 181585, Table 9
|
Race & Age |
Rape
& Sexual Assault |
Robbery |
Aggravated
Assault |
Crimes
of Violence (total) |
White |
|
|
|
|
|
12-15 |
3.8 |
8.5 |
74.8 |
87.1 |
|
16-19 |
4.5 |
10.0 |
79.4 |
93.9 |
|
20-24 |
4.7 |
6.9 |
53.3 |
64.8 |
|
25-34 |
1.7 |
3.9 |
36.8 |
42.4 |
|
35-49 |
0.7 |
3.1 |
26.7 |
30.5 |
|
50-64 |
0.2 |
1.8 |
13.6 |
15.6 |
|
65 up |
0.0 |
0.5 |
2.1 |
2.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Black |
|
|
|
|
|
12-15 |
2.9 |
4.6 |
59.0 |
66.5 |
|
16-19 |
9.5 |
18.5 |
65.1 |
93.2 |
|
20-24 |
4.1 |
12.4 |
62.9 |
79.3 |
|
25-34 |
2.1 |
6.9 |
33.7 |
42.8 |